Research
Macroeconomic Effects of UI Extensions at Short and Long Durations
Miguel Acosta, Andreas Mueller, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson
The effect of UI extensions on unemployment are small when pre-extension durations are already long. These effects are quite a bit larger when pre-extension durations are smaller.
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Exchange Rate Depreciations
Masao Fukui, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson
Regime-induced exchange rate depreciations are strongly expansionary. Net exports fall (ruling out an export led boom) and nominal interest rates rise (ruling out a monetary expansion). To explain these findings, we build a financially driven exchange rate model (FDX model) with a strong foreign credit channel. Our model is also consistent with exchange rate disconnect and the Mussa facts.
Learning about the Long Run
Leland Farmer, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson
Bayesian learning can explain all prominent forecast anomalies by professional forecasters and deviations from the expectations hypothesis of the term structure
When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870
Paul Bouscasse, Emi Nakamura, and Jón Steinsson
Productivity growth began in England in 1600, well before the Glorious Revolution. This suggests growth may have contributed to causing 17th century liberal reforms in England